The pharmaceutical industry forecast includes a 6 percent revenue increase in the U.S., reaching $636.9 billion by year’s end. Pharmaceutical industry trends also point to a steady growth rate that’s expected to push volume up to $802.80 billion by 2028. Industry insiders also expect the U.S. market to experience a surge in demand for personalized medicines and therapies. Globally, more than 5 million people work for Big Pharma.
Although marked by consistent growth, drug companies also face headwinds. The Inflation Reduction Act requires companies to provide Medicare rebates in the event a medication’s cost outpaces inflation.
Given that research reportedly indicates medication costs ran ahead of inflation during 2019 and 2020, pharmaceutical operations may need to find innovative ways to make up those give-back losses. These rank among the pharmaceutical industry trends that are changing the drug landscape.
Drugmakers Enjoyed Historic Wins in 2023
Drug producers and patients may look back at 2023 as the year of the Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats, also known as “CRISPR.” In genome engineering, the term refers to programmable systems used to focus on genetic code. CRISPR helps edit DNA at specified locations and for specialized purposes.
Drug companies can now allow more researchers to permanently alter genes to treat the root cause of DNA-based diseases. After gaining FDA approval in 2023, pharmaceutical industry forecast expectations are that 10-20 gene therapy medications could be in the pipeline next year.
Adapting to Challenges of Competitive Generic Therapies (CGTs)
Although industry insiders consider cell and gene therapies the pharmaceutical sector’s brave new world, high patient demand proves something of a problem. That’s largely because few patients meet the eligibility criteria for the CGTs that have gained approval.
Part of the challenge involves manufacturing impediments. Making cell and gene therapies relies too heavily on costly, manual processes. Inefficient productivity has also resulted in lengthy waitlists. In terms of overcoming CGT obstacles, pharmaceutical industry forecast experts anticipate integrating advanced technologies, making scientific breakthroughs and manufacturers prioritizing these quality-of-life-improving products.
CAR-T Growth Expected
Researchers appear hopeful that Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy will grow by leaps and bounds in 2024 and beyond. At least one pharmaceutical industry forecast pegs its 2024 growth to hover around 19 percent. These therapies turn the tables by empowering the body’s immune system to fight cancer. A handful of CAR-T therapies are on the cusp of approval. Food and Drug Administration decisions could be rendered by the end of 2024 or early 2025.
If the FDA approvals come through — as expected — these non-oncology approaches are likely to gain significant traction. We may see CAR-T therapy emerge as a fundamental pathway to treating lupus, immune disease, and improve vaccine development.
Precision Medicine Targets Obesity
Big Pharma is fully invested in the revenue streams generated by weight-loss drugs. Historically, appetite-suppressing medications drove the market. However, the focus appears to be shifting away from the stop-eating model and directly confronting obesity as a disease.
Reports indicate upwards of 120 obesity drugs are in the trial phase. They appear to be chasing the success of drugs such as semaglutide, which reportedly delivers 15 percent weight loss. Products currently being tested are inching above the 20-percent bodyweight reduction threshold. Drugmakers have invested heavily in obesity medications because the pharmaceutical industry forecast for annual sales is expected to exceed $100 billion in 2030.
Autoimmune Disease Take Center Stage
A proactive response from research and development is needed to stave off the suffering caused by the rising number of autoimmune conditions. Scientists have identified approximately 80 autoimmune diseases. These include household-name health problems such as Type 1 diabetes, multiple sclerosis, lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis, among others. However, an untold number have yet to be categorized or fully understood.
Upwards of 50 million Americans suffer some form of autoimmune problem, and global spending on treatments neared $150 billion in 2023. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and corticosteroids have not proven effective at managing these ailments.
The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is now turning its attention to small molecules. Commonly used in low doses and topical applications, a new drug delivery system is reportedly in the works. The goal is to provide a way to transport advanced medications with precision accuracy. This approach is expected to offer greater personalization and better outcomes.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Plays Greater Role in Cough-Related Ailments
Some are calling it the “year of the cough,” as drugmakers respond to lingering concerns from the pandemic. The health emergency left the public fearful of coughing illnesses after federal and state governments issued mask mandates to slow the spread of COVID-19. Some Covid vaccine manufacturers earned between $30 and $40 billion from the injection and boosters during the height of the pandemic.
Now, drug companies are turning their attention to conditions that cause coughing, such as COPD and upper respiratory tract infections. The industry has begun using AI and machine learning analytics to gain a better understanding of coughing patterns. The advanced technologies play a critical role in measuring, monitoring, and generating actionable cough data.
Medication Delivery Shifting from Injections to Nasal Inhalants
Call it user-friendly, if you will, but manufacturers appear to be making a concerted effort to pivot from injectable vaccinations to nasal methods. The general idea is to allow consumers to take medications home and carry out treatments without the need for medical professionals to perform injections.
It’s not necessarily always the case that people can make simple injections, such as insulin. Many harbor fears or cannot bring themselves to puncture their skin with a sharp metal object. The convenience of less invasive medications that can be administered by patients without medical oversight is expected to benefit underserved populations. Industry insiders see small biotech firms leading the charge. However, funding challenges could result in products slowly making it to market.
Big Pharma Rethinks Adverse Reaction Tracking
Companies are expected to address the need for increased pharmacovigilance by leveraging technologies such as AI and machine learning. This is not to say that pharmaceutical companies are not hesitant to hand over data traditionally compiled by human beings with decision-making powers.
Some see adding automation as a step backward, while others view automation as a way to generate and analyze data that may be falling through the cracks. Moving forward, drug manufacturers are tasked with navigating between regulatory compliance and handling unwieldy case volumes. Big Pharma will need to reimagine its post-approval drug reaction tracking methodologies.
Drug Manufacturing Plants Embrace Automation & Digital Connectivity
Pharmaceutical outfits continue to pose the question: How do I improve plant efficiency and productivity? The answer has always been automation, but now AI, machine learning, and remote connectivity are expected to take a more prominent role. These advanced technologies are expected to be deployed in ways that help collect facility data in real time.
Plant managers will have the opportunity to access and make decisions without interruption. That means systems can be adjusted from remote endpoint devices. Although some in the sector have been reluctant to give next-gen technology a thumbs-up, it typically reduces costs while improving plant efficiency.
More than 50 novel drugs were approved by the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research in 2023, the highest tally since 2018. That being said, more than 4,500 new immunological anti-cancer drugs were developed outside the U.S. and 3,600 anti-cancer drugs were in the R&D phase.
The pharmaceutical industry continues to work tirelessly to advance medications that help manage and cure medical conditions. Given that the cost of bringing a drug to market remains in the billions, innovation, technology, and cost-effective delivery systems will continue to evolve.